A Statistical Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Their Impacts on Agricultural Productivity, Economic Performance, and Tourism in India

The primary objective of this study has involved the examination of rainfall trends in India, their impacts on agriculture, tourism, and economic growth, and further, forecasting the annual rainfall for the period spanning from 2023 to 2030. In this pursuit, both the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator have been utilized for the assessment of annual and seasonal rainfall patterns. A negative trend has persisted throughout the winter season from 2001 to 2022, whereas robust positive trends have emerged in the context of the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons during the same timeframe. Conversely, annual rainfall has been found to exhibit a sustained, down- ward trajectory. The most substantial negative slope magnitude has materialized in the annual rainfall pattern (-1.0891 mm/year), while the most pronounced positive trend slope has been noted in the monsoon season (3.2538 mm/year). It is noteworthy that the southwest monsoon, prevailing from June to September, has significantly contributed to approximately 76% of India’s total rainfall, with the highest recorded precipitation volume documented in 2019, and the lowest recorded in 2002. The present study consistently pointed to a positive yet statistically insignificant relationship between annual rainfall and per-capita domestic product. Similarly, a statistically insignificant correlation has been discerned between annual rainfall and the number of tourists. Conversely, a robust and positive correlation between annual rainfall and foodgrain production has been observed and was found to be statistically significant. Additionally, the current study entailed the provision of forecasts regarding rainfall in India for the upcoming eight-year period, extending from 2023 to 2030. These forecasts, facilitated by the application of the ARIMA (1,0,0) model, have consistently projected a continuing decline in annual rainfall. This projected reduction in rainfall could entail severe ramifications for critical aspects such as water resources, agricultural productivity, and the overall economy. Consequently, proactive measures, encompassing water conservation initiatives, the adoption of drought-resistant agricultural practices, and in- vestments in alternative energy sources, are deemed imperative.

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