Analysing Credit Risk Dynamics in BRICS Nations: Insights from Post Pandemic Economic Recovery and Resilience Strategies

This study examines credit risk dynamics and financial stability in BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — during the post-pandemic economic recovery period (2015–2024). Using panel regression, ARIMA forecasting, and Chow’s Structural Break Test, the research finds that foreign direct investment (FDI) significantly reduces non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, while unemployment is a primary driver of rising loan defaults. Contrary to conventional expectations, GDP growth alone does not significantly reduce credit risk. Capital adequacy, while important, is insufficient without robust risk management frameworks. Forecast results indicate divergent recovery trends, with India and Brazil improving, Russia facing rising risk, and China remaining stable. The study underscores the need for investment promotion, employment generation, and adaptive fiscal policies for sustainable financial resilience in emerging markets.