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Paper ID:IJSREM67633

Design, Development, and Performance Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Predictive Framework for Stock Market Trend Analysis

Stream/Area:

-

Subject:

-

Paper ID:

IJSREM67633

Volume:

10 |

10 |

Oct 2026

Pages:

1-11

Publication Frequency:

Monthly (12 issues per year)

DOI
Digital Object Identifier
10.55041/IJSREM67633

License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.

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Authors

DJ

Dimpal Jain

Computer Science and Engineering

Suresh Gyan Vihar University, India

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SKS

Swatantra Kumar Sahu

Computer Science and Engineering

Suresh Gyan Vihar University, India

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MKG

Mukesh Kumar Gupta

Computer Science and Engineering

Suresh Gyan Vihar University, India

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Abstract

The financial market is a dynamic and volatile entity, where accurate stock market trend prediction plays a crucial role in supporting investment decisions. In this paper, the design, development, and testing of a machine learning predictive framework for stock market trend analysis are discussed. A wide variety of machine learning models are implemented and benchmarked with real-world historical stock market data, including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The experimental results show that the proposed model is more effective in predicting the accuracy of 97.83%, achieving better precision, recall and F1 score than the existing models, and also the ROC-AUC of the proposed model is better than the conventional models. Moreover, the proposed framework showed a lower prediction error and balanced computational efficiency that helps it be applied in practical financial forecasting applications. The proposed framework can be a reliable and scalable solution for intelligent stock market trend prediction and data-driven investment decision support.

KEYWORDS

Stock Market Trend Analysis; Machine Learning; Predictive Framework; Financial Forecasting; Stock Price Prediction.

Cite This Article

Dimpal Jain, Swatantra Kumar Sahu, Mukesh Kumar Gupta, "Design, Development, and Performance Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Predictive Framework for Stock Market Trend Analysis," International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 10, no. 10, pp. 1-11, Oct 2026. https://doi.org/10.55041/IJSREM67633

Full Article/Conclusion

The design, development, and evaluation of the performance of a ML-based predictive model for stock market trend analysis were presented in the study. Historical stock market data was used to implement and evaluate multiple ML models such as DT, RF, SVM, XGBoost and LSTM models. The experimental results showed that the proposed framework resulted in better predictive performance with an accuracy of 97.83%, and improved precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC-AUC scores when compared to the traditional methods, with lower prediction error. The framework was also found to be computationally efficient, which is crucial for financial forecasting applications. As a whole, the proposed framework offers a dependable, scalable, and intelligent approach to stock market trend prediction and assists in the data-driven decision-making process for investments. Future research plans involve integrating deep learning models with real-time streaming data along with sentiment analysis capabilities to further boost forecasting accuracy and adaptability.

References

1.    Shilpa Srivastava, Millie Pant, Varuna Gupta, Analysis and prediction of Indian stock market: a machine‑learning approach, Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag, 2023,  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-023-01934-z 2.    Abbasimehr H, Paki R (2022) Improving time series forecasting using LSTM and attention models. J Ambient Intell Human Comput 13:673–691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-020-02761-x 3.    Chauhan P, Sharma N, Sikka G (2021) The emergence of social media data and sentiment analysis in election prediction. J Ambient Intell Human Comput 12:2601–2627. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s12652-020-02423-y 4.    Zhang, X., G. Naijie, C. Jie, and Y. Hong. 2021. Predicting stock price movement using a dbn-rnn. Applied Artificial Intelligence 35 (12):876–92. doi:10.1080/08839514.2021.1942520. 5.    Chen W, Zhang H, Mehlawat MK, Jia L (2021) Mean–variance portfolio optimization using machine learning-based stock price prediction. Appl Soft Computi 100:106943 6.    Ding S, Cui T, Xiong X et al (2020) Forecasting stock market return with nonlinearity: a genetic programming approach. J Ambient Intell Human Comput 11:4927–4939. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s12652-020-01762-0 7.    Khang PQ, Kaczmarczyk K, Tutak P, Golec P, Kuziak K, Depczyński R, Hernes M, Rot A (2021) Machine learning for liquidity prediction on Vietnamese stock market. Procedia Comput Sci 192:3590– 3597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.132 8.    Zope P. (2023). Stock price prediction using moving average time series. International Journal of Research Publication and Reviews Journal Homepage, 4, 656–662. https://ijrpr.com/uploads/V4ISSUE6/IJRPR14104.pdf 9.    Vuong P. H., Phu L. H., Hong T., Duy L. N., Bao P. T., & Trinh T. D. (2024). A bibliometric literature review of stock price forecasting: From statistical model to deep learning approach. Science Progress, 107(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/00368504241236557 10. Ozbayoglu, A. M., M. U. Gudelek, and O. B. Sezer. 2020. Deep learning for financial applications : A survey. Applied Soft Computing 93:106384. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106384.

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Publication Date

10/2/2026

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