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Paper ID:IJSREM66373

Foreign Direct Investment and Macroeconomic Indicators in India: A Granger Causality Analysis

Stream/Area:

-

Subject:

-

Paper ID:

IJSREM66373

Volume:

10 |

7 |

Jul 2026

Pages:

1-15

Publication Frequency:

Monthly (12 issues per year)

DOI
Digital Object Identifier
10.55041/IJSREM66373

License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.

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Authors

Dr Neelu Kumari

Dr Neelu Kumari

Department of Economics

Ranchi University, Ranchi

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Sweta Kumari

Sweta Kumari

Department of Economics

Ranchi University, Ranchi

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Abstract

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has emerged as one of the most significant sources of capital formation and economic development in emerging economies such as India. The relationship between FDI and macroeconomic variables is dynamic and often characterized by feedback effects. This study investigates the causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and selected macroeconomic variables, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Domestic Savings (GDS), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Exports (EXP), Imports (IMP), Gross National Income (GNI), Net National Income (NNI), and Per Capita Income (PCI), using annual time-series data for India. The study employs the Granger causality framework after testing the stationarity and long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The empirical findings reveal both bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships, suggesting that macroeconomic fundamentals significantly influence FDI inflows while FDI also contributes to economic growth.

KEYWORDS

Foreign Direct Investment Granger Causality India GDP Exports GDS

Cite This Article

Dr Neelu Kumari, Sweta Kumari, "Foreign Direct Investment and Macroeconomic Indicators in India: A Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 1-15, Jul 2026. https://doi.org/10.55041/IJSREM66373

Full Article/Conclusion

The study concludes that the relationship between FDI and macroeconomic variables in India is characterized by both feedback and one-way causal mechanisms. While GDP and exports maintain a mutually reinforcing relationship with FDI, domestic savings, capital formation, national income, imports, and per capita income primarily act as determinants of foreign investment inflows. Policymakers should therefore focus on strengthening domestic macroeconomic fundamentals to attract stable and sustainable FDI, which, in turn, contributes to long-term economic growth and development

References

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0 Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 89–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00081-3 Chakraborty, C., & Basu, P. (2002). Foreign direct investment and growth in India: A cointegration approach. Applied Economics, 34(9), 1061–1073. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110074079 De Mello, L. R., Jr. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: Evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 133–151. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/51.1.1 Agrawal, G. (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in BRICS economies: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(4), 421–424. https://doi.org/10.7763/JOEBM.2015.V3.221 Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy Dunning, J. H. (1993). Multinational enterprises and the global economy. Addison-Wesley. Asiedu, E. (2002). On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different? World Development, 30(1), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00100-0 Pradhan, R. P. (2009). The FDI-led-growth hypothesis in India: Evidence from the ARDL bounds test. International Journal of Business and Management, 4(9), 82–88. Dash, R. K., & Parida, P. C. (2013). Foreign direct investment, services trade and economic growth in India: Empirical evidence from the post-reform period. Journal of Economic Policy and Reform, 16(4), 293–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2012.759432

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Publication Date

7/28/2026

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Review Rounds: 2

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