GOLD AS A LONG-TERM INVESTMENT IN INDIA: AN EIGHT-DECADE ANALYTICAL STUDY OF PRICE GROWTH, WEALTH CREATION AND INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

Gold has remained an important investment asset in India, with the study demonstrating substantial long-term nominal price appreciation between 1947 and 2026. The price of 24-carat gold increased from ₹88.62 to ₹1,55,130 per 10 grams, representing an approximately 1,750.51-fold increase, with cumulative nominal appreciation of 174,950.78% and an overall CAGR of 9.91%. However, the growth was not consistent across all periods, with interval CAGR ranging from −8.50% during 1960–1965 to 23.96% during 1970–1975. The recent 2020–2026 period also recorded a high CAGR of 23.91%, highlighting the importance of investment timing. The statistical analysis further supports the long-term upward trend, with a significant correlation between year and gold price (r = 0.611, p = 0.012) and a significant regression model (R² = 0.373). However, the moderate R² indicates that time alone does not explain gold-price movements. The hypothetical wealth analysis shows that ₹10,000 invested on a price-linked basis in 1947 would correspond to approximately ₹1.75 crore in 2026. This represents theoretical nominal wealth creation and does not account for inflation, taxation, transaction costs, storage expenses, or the form of gold investment. Therefore, gold demonstrates considerable long-term nominal wealth-creation and wealth-preservation potential, but its performance should be assessed in relation to investment horizon, risk tolerance, and portfolio diversification. The study does not establish gold as universally superior to alternative investments; such a conclusion would require comparative analysis with equities, fixed-income instruments, real estate, and other assets.

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