Gold Price Volatility and Purchase Intention in the Indian Jewellery Market: The Moderating Role of Perceived Investment Value and Consumer Adaptability

Gold prices in India surged over 50% year-on-year during 2025–2026, creating an unprecedented environment for jewellery consumers. This study investigates how perceived price volatility influences purchase intention for gold jewellery, examining the mediating role of perceived investment value and the moderating effect of purchase urgency. A quantitative survey of 385 Indian jewellery consumers was conducted, and data were analysed using mediation and moderated mediation analyses (PROCESS Macro). Results show that perceived price volatility has a significant negative direct effect on purchase intention (β = -0.38, p < 0.001). However, perceived investment value partially mediates this relationship, with the indirect effect accounting for 36.8% of the total effect (indirect effect = -0.14, 95% CI [-0.22, -0.07]). Consumers who view gold as a long-term investment exhibit significantly weaker price sensitivity. Purchase urgency (wedding and festival occasions) moderates the mediation pathway: under high urgency, the indirect effect becomes minimal, as cultural and emotional motives override price calculations. Adaptation strategies vary systematically across segments: 40.1% of consumers prefer old gold exchange, 32.3% opt for lightweight jewellery, and 17.7% shift to lower-karat (14K/18K) options. Younger consumers (under 35) are over twice as likely to accept lower-karat gold (24.4% vs. 11.3% of older consumers). Affluent consumers are eight times more likely to increase their budget than low-income consumers. Rural consumers show lower price sensitivity for wedding purchases. These findings extend price sensitivity theory by demonstrating asymmetric elasticity in a dual-purpose cultural asset and provide actionable guidance for retailers on inventory (lightweight and lower-karat designs), promotions (exchange programs), and segment-specific marketing strategies.