Predicting Bank Nifty Movements Based on ICICI, HDFC, and Axis Bank Returns

Predicting Bank Nifty Movements Based on ICICI, HDFC, and Axis Bank Returns

Dr. Manita D Shah*, M L Anushree**, Tarun Suvindran**, Disha G**, Vasantha GP**, Thejaswini SM**

*Professor, Faculty of Management Studies, Jain (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore.

**MBA, 2023-25, Faculty of Management Studies, Jain (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore.

Abstract

This study investigates the link between the returns of ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank and the overall performance of the Bank Nifty index, which is a crucial measure of the Indian banking sector's health on the National Stock Exchange. Using five years of historical data, regression analysis and descriptive statistics evaluate trends, correlations, and prediction accuracy in anticipating Bank Nifty returns based on the performance of these large banks. The study finds that while Bank Nifty displays stability as it aggregates multiple bank stocks, individual banks like Axis Bank and HDFC exhibit distinct volatility patterns, with Axis Bank showing significant fluctuations due to firm-specific and external factors.Regression results show a little association between individual bank returns and the Bank Nifty, indicating that the index has limited predictive value for single equities. Nonetheless, knowing these patterns may help investors manage risk, anticipate market changes, and develop portfolio diversification methods. The findings emphasize the relevance of sector-specific patterns, implying that although Bank Nifty captures broad market movements, other elements have a distinct influence on each bank's performance, providing insights for more sophisticated investment and risk management methods.