Projected Future Scenario of Electric Vehicles and Their Latent Impact on Electricity Demand in Kenya

Projected Future Scenario of Electric Vehicles and Their Latent Impact on Electricity Demand in Kenya

Rogers Kipsang1, David C. Cherus2, Joel K. Tonui3

1Rogers Kipsang, Department of Physics, University of Eldoret

2David C. Cherus, Department of Physics, University of Eldoret

3Joel K. Tonui, Department of Physics, University of Eldoret

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Abstract-This study projects the future scenario of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and its impact on electricity demand in Kenya. Using data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) registered from 2010 to 2022. Logistic growth model (LGM) used for projections was executed using MATLAB. The projected number of EVs by 2050 for conservative (25%) moderate (50%), optimistic (75%), and original (100%) adoption rates were respectively 3,927,131; 7,475,274; 9,880,293 and 10,807,843 with corresponding electricity demand of 14.8 TWh, 28.2 TWh, 37.3 TWh and 40.8 TWh, which increases to 18.7 TWh, 35.7 TWh, 47.2 TWh, and 51.6 TWh when generation and transmission losses are added. Adding electricity demand by other sectors, net electricity generation increases in the range from 37.4 TWh to 70.3 TWh for conservative and original scenarios respectively by 2050, which represent 3-times and 5.5 times the 2022-generation of ~13 TWh. In conclusion, EVs penetration into the Kenyan market is currently low. However, their eventual replacement of ICEVs will have significant implications for electricity demand and supply, even under the conservative scenario.

Key Words: transportation, electric vehicles, energy demand, logistics growth model, climate change