Sales Prediction of Hero Passion Plus Bikes Using Sarima Model: A Study at Narasimha Reddy Motors, Anantapur

This study examines monthly and annual sales patterns of Hero Passion Plus motorcycles at Narasimha Reddy Motors, Anantapur, and develops a seasonal forecast using the SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Secondary data comprising 36 months of actual sales records from January 2023 to December 2025 is analysed using Python. Annual sales grew from 599 units in 2023 to 757 units in 2024 and 852 units in 2025, reflecting a consistent upward growth trajectory. Monthly analysis reveals a recurring seasonal peak during October and November coinciding with the festival demand cycle, and a secondary peak in March driven by financial year-end purchases. The SARIMA model, fitted on the full 36-month series, projects annual volumes of approximately 1,000 units in 2026 and 1,100 units in 2027. The study employs Python libraries including Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib, Statsmodels, and Scikit-learn, and presents all results through analytical charts and code-based walkthroughs. Practical recommendations are provided for inventory management, promotional planning, and off-season demand stimulation at the dealership level.