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ArticlePeer ReviewedOpen AccessPlagiarism Passed
Paper ID:IJSREM64630

Stock Market Analysis and Prediction using Random Forest.

Stream/Area:

-

Subject:

-

Paper ID:

IJSREM64630

Volume:

10 |

6 |

Jun 2026

Pages:

1-13

Publication Frequency:

Monthly (12 issues per year)

DOI
Digital Object Identifier
10.55041/IJSREM64630

License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.

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Authors

AAM

Amey. A. Mojar

Department of Information Technology

Sinhgad Institute of Technology & Science (SPPU), Pune, India

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OGA

Onkar. G. Avakale

Department of Information Technology

Sinhgad Institute of Technology & Science (SPPU), Pune, India

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SSZ

Shreyash. S. Zope

Department of Information Technology

Sinhgad Institute of Technology & Science (SPPU), Pune, India

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RSC

Rohan. S. Chavan

Department of Information Technology

Sinhgad Institute of Technology & Science (SPPU), Pune, India

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RAS

Rohit. A. Sawant

Department of Information Technology

Sinhgad Institute of Technology & Science (SPPU), Pune, India

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Abstract

The stock market is one of the most dynamic and complex systems influenced by numerous economic, political, and psychological factors. Predicting stock price movement has been a long-standing challenge for researchers and investors due to the volatile nature of market behavior and the nonlinear relationships among financial variables. With the advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), it is now possible to extract meaningful patterns from large-scale financial datasets to support informed investment decisions. This research proposes a Stock Price Visualizer and Predictor system that leverages supervised learning techniques to forecast short-term market movements while providing a real-time visual analytics interface. The system utilizes two years of historical stock data collected from the Yahoo Finance API using the yfinance Python library. Data preprocessing includes handling missing values, normaliza- tion, and feature enhancement by introducing new indicators such as Price Change and Simple Moving Averages (SMA-5 and SMA-10). These derived features strengthen the predictive power of the model by capturing recent market momentum and volatility. The dataset is divided into three parts—training, testing, and validation—where the validation set consists of the most recent day’s data to evaluate real-world performance. A Random Forest Classifier, implemented using the Scikit-learn library, is trained on the engineered dataset. The model’s output predicts the directional movement of stock prices (Up/Down). Evaluation metrics, including accuracy and prediction validation, are employed to measure the model’s performance. The system achieved an average accuracy of 51.52 percent, which is consistent with results from similar financial forecasting studies where short-term predictions remain highly uncertain. Despite market volatility, the model successfully identified correct directional trends on several test datasets. The application integrates Python- based ML modules with a Node.js and Express.js web inter- face to deliver a seamless user experience. Users can visualize historical stock trends, observe the model’s latest prediction, and compare predicted versus actual outcomes. Furthermore, prediction results and performance metrics are automatically exported to Google Sheets for transparency and traceability. This research demonstrates the feasibility of using ensemble learning methods for short-term stock forecasting while combining them with visualization and automation for end-user accessibility. The developed system serves as a foundation for further exploration into hybrid or deep learning models, sentiment-based analytics, and real-time financial prediction systems.

KEYWORDS

Key Words: Stock Market Prediction Machine Learning Random Forest Classifier Sentiment Analysis Financial Forecasting Stock Price Visualization Technical Indicators Alpha Vantage API Yahoo Finance API Data Preprocessing Feature Engineering Predictive Analytics Financial News Sentiment Python Node.js React.js Ensemble Learning Time Series Analysis Data Visualization Artificial Intelligence Web-Based Prediction System Financial Analytics Market Trend Prediction Natural Language Processing (NLP) Decision Support System.

Cite This Article

Amey. A. Mojar, Onkar. G. Avakale, Shreyash. S. Zope, Rohan. S. Chavan, Rohit. A. Sawant, "Stock Market Analysis and Prediction using Random Forest.," International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 1-13, Jun 2026. https://doi.org/10.55041/IJSREM64630

Full Article/Conclusion

The Stock Price Visualizer and Predictor system success- fully demonstrates the integration of machine learning, data visualization, and financial analytics for short-term stock market forecasting. The study aimed to develop a model capable of predicting stock price movements using historical data, engineered features, and an interpretable ensemble-based algorithm. Through systematic experimentation, the research validates that Random Forest Classifier, combined with fea- ture enhancement techniques, can moderately capture market trends despite the inherent volatility of financial time-series data. The implementation of this system involved a complete workflow encompassing data acquisition from Yahoo Finance, preprocessing to handle missing values, feature engineering using indicators such as Price Change and Simple Mov- ing Averages (SMA-5, SMA-10), and model training using Scikit-learn. The data was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets to ensure robust evaluation. The trained Random Forest model achieved an average accuracy of 51.52 percent, aligning with the expected benchmark for short-term predictions where market randomness significantly influences outcomes. A major contribution of this research lies in its user- centric visualization interface, developed using Node.js and Express.js, which allows users to visualize historical trends, observe model predictions, and verify outcomes in real time. The automated export of prediction results to Google Sheets ensures transparency and continuous monitoring of model performance, making it practical for academic, research, and investment use. The findings reaffirm that ensemble learning models such as Random Forest strike a balance between accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency. However, the un- predictability of financial markets restricts the model’s up- per bound of performance, suggesting that even the most sophisticated algorithms can provide probabilistic insights rather than deterministic forecasts. Future work can explore hybrid deep learning architectures (such as LSTM-Random Forest combinations), sentiment-based features, and real-time predictive streaming to enhance accuracy and adaptability. Additionally, integrating cloud deployment and automated retraining pipelines can extend the system’s scalability and operational efficiency. In conclusion, this research contributes to the growing body of work at the intersection of artificial intelligence and finance, establishing a strong foundation for intelligent stock analysis platforms that blend prediction, visu- alization, and decision support into a single integrated system.

References

[1]       L. Breiman, “Random Forests,” Machine Learning, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 5–32, 2001. [2]       J. Patel, S. Shah, P. Thakkar, and K. Kotecha, “Predicting stock market        index using fusion of machine learning techniques,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 2162–2172, 2015. [3]       T. Fischer and C. Krauss, “Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 270, no. 2, pp. 654–669, 2018. [4]       E. Chong, C. Han, and F. C. Park, “Deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction: Methodology, data representations, and case studies,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 83, pp. 187–205, 2017. [5]       Y. Chen and Y. Hao, “A feature weighted support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor algorithm for stock market indices prediction,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 80, pp. 340–355, 2017. [6]       X. Zhang, Y. Zhao, and Y. LeCun, “Stock movement prediction using LSTM neural networks with sentiment analysis,” IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. 111775–111784, 2019. [7]       J. Bollen, H. Mao, and X. Zeng, “Twitter mood predicts the stock market,” Journal of Computational Science, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 2011.M. Tamilselvi, J. Giri, and D. Sheela, “Experimental evaluation unified payment interface (upi) fraud de tection system using elevated deep learning methodology,” 2024. [8]       A. Hassan and A. Mahmood, “Stock market prediction using machine learning algorithms,” International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, vol. 8, no. 7, pp. 163–170, 2017. [9]       S. Si, H. Mukherjee, B. Liu, Q. Li, H. Li, and X. Deng, “Exploiting topic based twitter sentiment for stock prediction,” in Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 2013, pp. 24–29. [10]      Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. [Online]. Available: https://scikit-learn.org

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Publication Date

6/8/2026

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