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Stream/Area:
-
Subject:
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Paper ID:
IJSREM65941
Volume:
10 |
7 |
Jul 2026
Pages:
1-15
Publication Frequency:
Monthly (12 issues per year)
License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.
Management Studies
Central University of Kashmir,J&K
Management Studies
Central University of Kashmir,J&K
Management Studies
Central University of Kashmir,J&K
This paper empirically investigates the weak-form informational efficiency of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex, India’s benchmark stock index, over an interval from January 2000 to June 2026. The study utilizes weekly closing price data to rigorously test the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) that past price movements cannot be used to predict future returns. A comprehensive method-ological framework is employed, encompassing ten distinct econometric tests: (1) Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test, (2) Phillips-Perron (PP) Unit Root Test, (3) Ljung-Box Q-test for serial correlation, (4) Runs Test for random-ness, (5) Generalized Spectral Martingale Test, (6) Lo-MacKinlay Variance Ratio Test, (7) Chow-Denning Multiple Variance Ratio Test, (8) BDS Test for nonlinear dependence, (9) Bai-Perron Structural Break Test, and (10) ARIMA Forecasting with Diebold-Mariano Test. The empirical results reveal mixed evidence regarding weak-form efficiency. Unit root tests confirm that returns are stationary, consistent with the random walk hy-pothesis. However, the Runs Test rejects randomness, indicating serial dependence in returns. The Ljung-Box test detects significant autocorrelation, while the Lo-MacKinlay Variance Ratio test shows significant deviations from unity. The BDS test provides evidence of nonlinear dependence (18.8% significant), and the ARIMA forecast does not significantly outperform the naive random walk forecast. The Generalized Spectral Martingale test finds no evidence against the martingale hy-pothesis, and the Bai-Perron test detects variance breaks at weeks 294 (2005) and 498 (2009). Overall, with 5 out of 10 tests showing evidence against efficiency (50%);So,the evidence is mixed. This suggests that the BSE Sensex exhibits time-varying effi-ciency, consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004), where efficiency fluctuates with market conditions, structural changes, and investor behavior. These findings have important implications for stakeholders like investors and policymak-ers in emerging markets.
KEYWORDS
The evidence suggests that market efficiency in India is not a static property but a dynamic one, influenced by regulatory changes, investor behavior, and macroeconomic shocks.This time-varying weak-form efficiency exhibited by Sensex is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis,as evidenced by stationarity, martingale property, no nonlinearity, and no predictability,while the short-term serial dependence, mean re-version, and structural volatility breaks create periods of inefficiency.
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Publication Date
7/28/2026
Peer Review Type
Double-Blind Peer Review
Review Rounds: 2
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