Crossref DOIMemberCiteFactoropen accessissn
SJIF Impact Factor 8.659 | ISSN: 2582-3930
IJSREM Logo

International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management

(Gateway to Global Scholars - An International, Scholarly, Multi-Disciplinary, Open Access Journal)

Peer-Reviewed Journal Designed to Meet UGC's Quality Parameters

HomeCurrent IssuePast IssuesPay OnlineConferencesEditorial BoardAbout UsContact Us
IJSREM

Loading article...

Follow Us

  • Google Scholar
  • ResearchGate
  • Academia.edu
  • Mendeley
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Instagram

Journal Policies

  • Peer Review Policy
  • Publication Ethics
  • Copyright Infringement
  • Refund & Cancellation Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy

Journal Identifiers & Licenses

  • ISSN Verified: 2582-3930ISSN Verified: 2582-3930
  • Crossref DOI: 10.55041Crossref DOI: 10.55041
  • SJIF Ranking: 08.659SJIF Ranking: 08.659
  • Licensed under CC BY 4.0Licensed under CC BY 4.0
  • ISO Certification: 9001:2015ISO Certification: 9001:2015
  • Indexed & Cited In: Google ScholarIndexed & Cited In: Google Scholar

Contact Us

International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management (IJSREM)

#62/1, New No 7, 1st Cross, 2nd Main, Ganganagar, R T Nagar, Bangalore North, Bangalore, Karnataka, India – 560032
[email protected]+91 93911 67991
logos
logos
Working Hours

Mon – Sat: 9:00 AM – 6:00 PM

Sunday: 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM

+91 93911 67991

© 2026 IJSREM – International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management. This is an open-access journal. Articles are published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

DisclaimerPrivacy PolicyTerms and Conditions
ArticlePeer ReviewedOpen AccessPlagiarism Passed
Paper ID:IJSREM65941

Testing Weak-Form Informational Efficiency of the BSE Sensex: Using Weekly Data

Stream/Area:

-

Subject:

-

Paper ID:

IJSREM65941

Volume:

10 |

7 |

Jul 2026

Pages:

1-15

Publication Frequency:

Monthly (12 issues per year)

DOI
Digital Object Identifier
10.55041/IJSREM65941

License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.

Share this article:

Authors

MMH

Mohd. Mubashar Hassan

Management Studies

Central University of Kashmir,J&K

Download Author Certificate
PAN

Prof.Fayaz Ahmad Nika

Management Studies

Central University of Kashmir,J&K

Download Co-Author Certificate
DuH

Dr.Zia ul Haq

Management Studies

Central University of Kashmir,J&K

Download Co-Author Certificate

Author Services & Downloads

Full ArticlesAcceptance Certificate

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the weak-form informational efficiency of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex, India’s benchmark stock index, over an interval from January 2000 to June 2026. The study utilizes weekly closing price data to rigorously test the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) that past price movements cannot be used to predict future returns. A comprehensive method-ological framework is employed, encompassing ten distinct econometric tests: (1) Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test, (2) Phillips-Perron (PP) Unit Root Test, (3) Ljung-Box Q-test for serial correlation, (4) Runs Test for random-ness, (5) Generalized Spectral Martingale Test, (6) Lo-MacKinlay Variance Ratio Test, (7) Chow-Denning Multiple Variance Ratio Test, (8) BDS Test for nonlinear dependence, (9) Bai-Perron Structural Break Test, and (10) ARIMA Forecasting with Diebold-Mariano Test. The empirical results reveal mixed evidence regarding weak-form efficiency. Unit root tests confirm that returns are stationary, consistent with the random walk hy-pothesis. However, the Runs Test rejects randomness, indicating serial dependence in returns. The Ljung-Box test detects significant autocorrelation, while the Lo-MacKinlay Variance Ratio test shows significant deviations from unity. The BDS test provides evidence of nonlinear dependence (18.8% significant), and the ARIMA forecast does not significantly outperform the naive random walk forecast. The Generalized Spectral Martingale test finds no evidence against the martingale hy-pothesis, and the Bai-Perron test detects variance breaks at weeks 294 (2005) and 498 (2009). Overall, with 5 out of 10 tests showing evidence against efficiency (50%);So,the evidence is mixed. This suggests that the BSE Sensex exhibits time-varying effi-ciency, consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004), where efficiency fluctuates with market conditions, structural changes, and investor behavior. These findings have important implications for stakeholders like investors and policymak-ers in emerging markets.

KEYWORDS

Weak-form Efficiency Random Walk BSE Sensex Unit Root Tests Variance Ratio BDS Test Structural Breaks Adaptive Market Hypothe-sis

Cite This Article

Mohd. Mubashar Hassan, Prof.Fayaz Ahmad Nika, Dr.Zia ul Haq, "Testing Weak-Form Informational Efficiency of the BSE Sensex: Using Weekly Data," International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 1-15, Jul 2026. https://doi.org/10.55041/IJSREM65941

Full Article/Conclusion

The evidence suggests that market efficiency in India is not a static property but a dynamic one, influenced by regulatory changes, investor behavior, and macroeconomic shocks.This time-varying weak-form efficiency exhibited by Sensex is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis,as evidenced by stationarity, martingale property, no nonlinearity, and no predictability,while the short-term serial dependence, mean re-version, and structural volatility breaks create periods of inefficiency.

References

Abraham, A., Seyyed, F. J., & Al-Elg, A. (2004). Testing the random walk behavior and efficiency of the Gulf stock markets. The Financial Review, 39(3), 469-480. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22. Beveridge, S., & Nelson, C. R. (1981). A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(2), 151-174. Bhattacharjee, B., Sondhi, S., & Dave, S. (2016). Relevance of efficient market hypothesis: a study of present scenario in India. Journal of Management Research and Analysis, 3, 82. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons. Brock, W., Dechert, W., & Scheinkman, J. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric Reviews, 15(3), 197-235. Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th ed.). Cambridge Univer-sity Press. Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press. Chow, K. V., & Denning, K. C. (1993). A simple multiple variance ratio test. Journal of Econometrics, 58(3), 385-401. Cooray, A., & Wickremasinghe, G. (2005). The Efficiency of Emerging Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from the South Asian Region. MPRA Paper No. 23626. Das, S., & Mondal, A. (2026). Examine Segment-Specific Weak-Form Efficiency in India: Empirical Evidence from Equity and Commodity Indices. ANWESH: International Journal of Management & Information Technology, 11(1), 20. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregres-sive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253-263.

Editorial & Review Transparency

Publication Date

7/28/2026

Peer Review Type

Double-Blind Peer Review

Review Rounds: 2

Documents

Review Report (Confidential)
Copyright Form (Office)

Article Metrics & Impact

Article Views

0

Total views since publication

PDF Downloads

6

Total downloads since publication

Geographic Reach

5

Indexing, Archiving & Preservation

Google Scholar
Academia
ResearchGate
Crossref
SSRN
Semantic Scholar
Thomson Reuters
WorldCat
Mendeley
OpenAlex
EBSCO
Zenodo

Digital Preservation: This article is permanently archived on Zenodo and complies with all data preservation standards across major indexing platforms.

Ethics, Compliance & Transparency

Plagiarism Screening

This manuscript has been checked for plagiarism using TurnitinPlagiarismChecker software.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest related to this research work.

Funding Information

No funding information available for this research.

Similar & Recommended Articles

Similar Articles by Topic

Related research in the same subject area

Loading similar articles...