The Correlation Dynamics Between Sensex 30 Returns and INR/USD Exchange Rate Movements

The Sensex 30 is a benchmark index for India’s largest companies, indicating the health of the stock market. Its movements are influenced by domestic economic conditions, corporate performance, and global trends. The INR/USD exchange rate, which represents the Indian rupee vs. the US dollar, is crucial for India’s international trade and investment. A depreciating rupee benefits export-oriented companies but increases import costs, affecting market performance. Understanding this dynamic is essential for investors and policymakers. The fluctuating link between the INR/USD currency pair and SENSEX 30 stock index is examined in this study from 2014 to 2024, with an emphasis on how changes in the exchange rate affect stock market performance. As India continues to integrate into the global economy, the interaction between foreign investments and the Indian stock market has become increasingly relevant for understanding investor sentiment and economic stability. This study particularly examines how returns from the SENSEX 30, an index that monitors 30 of India’s biggest and most traded firms, are impacted by changes in the INR/USD exchange rate. The research’s main finding is that there is a strong positive correlation between the INR/USD exchange rate and the SENSEX 30 index, with a rise of 1 in the SENSEX 30 for every 0.90 increase in the exchange rate. This implies that the depreciation of the Indian currency (INR) in relation to the US Dollar (USD) may result in increased stock market returns, especially in industries that rely heavily on exports, as Indian goods become more competitive in international markets due to the weaker currency. On the other hand, persistent depreciation may also result in higher import prices and inflationary pressures, which might be detrimental to business profitability and the state of the economy as a whole. Given that currency changes may have an impact on their investment decisions, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are