The Study of the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) in Nigeria Using a Simple Mathematical Model

The Study of the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) in Nigeria Using a Simple Mathematical Model

Ibrahim Shuaibu Ibrahim¹, Salma Aminu Nabegu², Farouk Tijjani Sa’ad³

¹Faculty of Medicine, Cyprus International University, Nicosia, Cyprus

² Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano State, Nigeria

³ Department of Mathematics, Yusuf Maitama Sule University, Kano, Nigeria

Abstract

A simple SEIR model is adopted to study the spread of the novel coronavirus-19 (covid-19) infection in Nigeria. We used data obtained from Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) as of 29^th of June, 2020, to do our numerical simulations and prediction. By means of simulation, the basic reproduction number  for Nigeria happens to be greater than 1, this shows that there is currently covid-19 epidemic in the country. Moreover, the prediction on the nature of the spread of the disease revealed that; in a month’s time, the total number of covid-19 positive cases (active cases) would be twice the figure we have now, that is to say around 34,000 active cases. We believe this is related to the population of the exposed class. According to our results, the exposed individuals would reach around 34 million in a month which is way above the figures at the NCDC. By the end of the year 2020, the total active cases are predicted to be more than 1.5 million, which is alarming. Thus, the tracking system of the NCDC and other stakeholders has to be enhanced and readjusted in order to locate, test, isolate, and control this class of people (exposed and infected class).

Keywords: Covid-19, model, NCDC, basic reproduction number.