Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate, and Exchange Rate in India

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate, and Exchange Rate in India

Mr. Mavaturu Uppara Nagesh 1, Student of the Department of Management Studies. Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science. Madanapalle

Mr. Venkata Rao Valluri 2, Assistant Professor

                                Department of Management Studies. Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science. Madanapalle

1. ABSTRACT

This study employs time series analysis and forecasting techniques to examine the trends and patterns of inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and exchange rate in India from 2009 to 2024. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is used to check for stationarity, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. The results show that the ARIMA model accurately captures the trends and patterns of the three macroeconomic variables. The forecasted values indicate an upward trend in inflation and exchange rates, while the GDP growth rate is expected to fluctuate. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and investors seeking to understand the dynamics of the Indian economy.

Keywords: Time Series Analysis, ARIMA, Inflation Rate, GDP Growth Rate, Exchange Rate, Forecasting, India.