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Paper ID:IJSREM66467

Wind Cast AI : A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Model for Short Term Wind Power Forecasting

Stream/Area:

-

Subject:

-

Paper ID:

IJSREM66467

Volume:

10 |

7 |

Jul 2026

Pages:

1-8

Publication Frequency:

Monthly (12 issues per year)

DOI
Digital Object Identifier
10.55041/IJSREM66467

License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.

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Authors

DSL

DIKSHA SATISH LAZADE

Computer Science

Deogiri Institute of Engineering and Management Studies, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar

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PRR

Pravin Ramkrishna Rathod

Computer Science

Deogiri Institute of Engineering and Management Studies, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar

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Abstract

Accurate short-to-medium-term wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy dispatch, and the efficient integration of renewable sources. This paper presents WindCast AI, a deployed forecasting system that benchmarks six predictive architectures — Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, GRU, Transformer, and a Proposed Hybrid (Transformer + BiLSTM + Attention) — on five years of hourly meteorological and power-output data (43,800 records) from a wind installation. Physically-motivated features (vector wind components, cubic wind–power relation, temperature–humidity interaction) are engineered alongside raw SCADA-style inputs, and all models are evaluated on an identical temporal 80/20 train–test split using MAE, MSE, RMSE, R², and MAPE. Results show XGBoost achieving the lowest error (MAE = 0.1309, RMSE = 0.1661, R² = 0.6917 on min–max normalised power), narrowly ahead of the Proposed Hybrid model (MAE = 0.1307, RMSE = 0.1705). The findings are benchmarked against a recent large-scale review and case study (Guo et al., 2025, Energy Reports) that proposes a two-stage Speed-Revised-Model + Power-Prediction-Model (SRM+PPM) ensemble framework validated across 2,025 model combinations. The comparison highlights that while ensemble/HPO-driven pipelines achieve lower relative error at farm scale, lightweight gradient-boosted trees remain highly competitive for single-site, deployable forecasting, and identifies the sequence-input design of the deep learning models as a key area for improvement in future iterations of WindCast AI.

KEYWORDS

Wind Power Forecasting Machine Learning Deep Learning LSTM GRU Transformer XGBoost Feature Engineering Renewable Energy Time-Series Prediction.

Cite This Article

DIKSHA SATISH LAZADE, Pravin Ramkrishna Rathod, "Wind Cast AI : A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Model for Short Term Wind Power Forecasting," International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 1-8, Jul 2026. https://doi.org/10.55041/IJSREM66467

Full Article/Conclusion

This paper presented WindCast AI, a deployable Flask-based wind power forecasting system that trains and compares six model families — Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, GRU, Transformer, and a Proposed Hybrid Transformer-BiLSTM-Attention model — under an identical evaluation protocol, and extends the comparison with a real-time 24– 48 hour medium-term forecasting module built on live atmospheric data. On the evaluated dataset, XGBoost achieved the best RMSE while the Proposed Hybrid model achieved the best MAPE, underscoring that architecture selection should be guided by the error characteristic most relevant to the deployment context rather than a single aggregate metric.

References

[1]    J. L. Torres, A. Garcia, M. De Blas, and A. De Francisco, “Forecast of hourly average wind speed with ARMA models in Navarre (Spain),” Solar Energy, vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 65–77, 2005. [2]     B. -M. Hodge, A. Zeiler, D. Brooks, G. Blau, J. Pekny, and G. Reklatis, “Improved wind power forecasting with ARIMA models,” Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, vol. 29, pp. 1789–1793, 2011. [3]     F. Cassola and M. Burlando, “Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of numerical weather prediction model output,” Applied Energy, vol. 99, pp. 154–166, 2012. [4]       T. Ouyang, X. Zha, and L. Qin, “A combined multivariate model for wind power prediction,” Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 144, pp. 361–373, 2017. [5]     B. Zhou, X. Ma, Y. Luo, and D. Yang, “Wind power prediction based on LSTM networks and nonparametric kernel density estimation,” IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. 165279–165292, 2019. [6]       N. Bokde, A. Feijóo, D. Villanueva, and K. Kulat, “A review on hybrid empirical mode decomposition models for wind speed and wind power prediction,” Energies, vol. 12, no. 2, p. 254, 2019. [7]       F. Shahid, A. Zameer, and M. Muneeb, “A novel genetic LSTM model for wind power forecast,” Energy, vol. 223, p. 120069, 2021. [8]       X. Xiong, X. Guo, P. Zeng, R. Zou, and X. Wang, “A short-term wind power forecast method via XGBoost hyper-parameters optimization,” Frontiers in Energy Research, vol. 10, 2022. [9]       A. Alkesaiberi, F. Harrou, and Y. Sun, “Efficient wind power prediction using machine learning methods: A comparative study,” Energies, vol. 15, no. 7, p. 2327, 2022. [10]  J. Ren, Z. Yu, G. Gao, G. Yu, and J. Yu, “A CNN-LSTM-LightGBM based short-term wind power prediction method based on attention mechanism,” Energy Reports, vol. 8, pp. 437–443, 2022.

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Publication Date

7/31/2026

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Review Rounds: 2

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