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Stream/Area:
-
Subject:
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Paper ID:
IJSREM66467
Volume:
10 |
7 |
Jul 2026
Pages:
1-8
Publication Frequency:
Monthly (12 issues per year)
License:International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management follows the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) License, allowing free use and distribution with proper attribution.
Computer Science
Deogiri Institute of Engineering and Management Studies, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar
Computer Science
Deogiri Institute of Engineering and Management Studies, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar
Accurate short-to-medium-term wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy dispatch, and the efficient integration of renewable sources. This paper presents WindCast AI, a deployed forecasting system that benchmarks six predictive architectures — Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, GRU, Transformer, and a Proposed Hybrid (Transformer + BiLSTM + Attention) — on five years of hourly meteorological and power-output data (43,800 records) from a wind installation. Physically-motivated features (vector wind components, cubic wind–power relation, temperature–humidity interaction) are engineered alongside raw SCADA-style inputs, and all models are evaluated on an identical temporal 80/20 train–test split using MAE, MSE, RMSE, R², and MAPE. Results show XGBoost achieving the lowest error (MAE = 0.1309, RMSE = 0.1661, R² = 0.6917 on min–max normalised power), narrowly ahead of the Proposed Hybrid model (MAE = 0.1307, RMSE = 0.1705). The findings are benchmarked against a recent large-scale review and case study (Guo et al., 2025, Energy Reports) that proposes a two-stage Speed-Revised-Model + Power-Prediction-Model (SRM+PPM) ensemble framework validated across 2,025 model combinations. The comparison highlights that while ensemble/HPO-driven pipelines achieve lower relative error at farm scale, lightweight gradient-boosted trees remain highly competitive for single-site, deployable forecasting, and identifies the sequence-input design of the deep learning models as a key area for improvement in future iterations of WindCast AI.
KEYWORDS
This paper presented WindCast AI, a deployable Flask-based wind power forecasting system that trains and compares six model families — Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM, GRU, Transformer, and a Proposed Hybrid Transformer-BiLSTM-Attention model — under an identical evaluation protocol, and extends the comparison with a real-time 24– 48 hour medium-term forecasting module built on live atmospheric data. On the evaluated dataset, XGBoost achieved the best RMSE while the Proposed Hybrid model achieved the best MAPE, underscoring that architecture selection should be guided by the error characteristic most relevant to the deployment context rather than a single aggregate metric.
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Publication Date
7/31/2026
Peer Review Type
Double-Blind Peer Review
Review Rounds: 2
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