Cryptocurrency Price Prediction using Machine Learning – LSTM Model

Cryptocurrency Price Prediction using Machine Learning – LSTM Model

MAYANK GAUTAM1, MUHAMMAD SIBGHATULLAH2, MAYURESH PATHAK3 and Ms. ITISHREE BARIK4

123Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sir M. Visvesvaraya Institute of Technology, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

4Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sir M. Visvesvaraya Institute of Technology, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

Abstract—Cryptocurrency has rapidly evolved from a niche concept into a globally recognized financial instrument, attracting traders, investors, researchers, and governments due to its unpredictable nature and decentralized structure. Unlike traditional financial markets, cryptocurrency prices are influenced by a wide range of factors including social media sentiment, technological developments, adoption rate, regulatory announcements, security breaches, and global economic shifts. This volatility makes the prediction of cryptocurrency prices an extremely complex and uncertain problem, especially when using traditional analytical models such as ARIMA, linear regression, or classical statistical forecasting. These conventional approaches struggle because cryptocurrency time-series patterns are non-linear, chaotic, and lack seasonality, making deep learning-based models more suitable for understanding long-term dependencies and fluctuating trends.

In recent years, machine learning and deep learning techniques have become promising solutions for price forecasting tasks. Among them, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks have demonstrated superior performance because they are specifically designed to capture temporal relationships and retain information across long sequences. They avoid the vanishing gradient problem that limits standard recurrent neural networks, allowing them to model complex historical relationships that impact future price movements. In this study, a Python-based implementation using LSTM was developed to forecast cryptocurrency values such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, and Dogecoin. The system retrieves historical closing prices from Yahoo Finance, preprocesses and normalizes the data using MinMaxScaler, and trains an LSTM model capable of short-term forecasting. The model is further integrated with an interactive user interface through Gradio, enabling real-time predictions, visualization of historical versus forecasted values, and display of model accuracy metrics such as RMSE.

Preliminary results indicate that the model performs reasonably well in predicting short-term price movements, especially when recent trends show consistent trajectory, although long-term forecasting accuracy decreases due to unpredictable market fluctuations. While this work does not claim financial accuracy or trading precision, it demonstrates that LSTM can serve as a useful analytical and educational tool for understanding market behavior. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in applying artificial intelligence to financial forecasting and highlights potential future improvements such as incorporating sentiment analysis, technical indicators, transformer-based models, or hybrid learning frameworks for improved prediction performance.

Index Terms - Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Price Forecasting, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Time Series Prediction, Neural Networks, Financial Analytics, Volatility Modeling, Python, Artificial Intelligence, Data Preprocessing, Model Evaluation.